A statistical development of fixed odds betting rules in soccer

Ian Milliner, Paul White and Don Webber
Additional contact information
Ian Milliner: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of the West of England, Bristol, UK
Paul White: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of the West of England, Bristol, UK

No 807, Working Papers from Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol

Abstract: Two simple but seemingly profitable betting rules for betting on the away win in association football are developed. One rule is consistent with avoiding those games in which there is a clear favourite. The second rule is based directly on modelling bookmaker odds and assessing the residuals under the fitted model. Contrary to previous research the betting rule using the residuals suggests avoiding betting on those games where there are large discrepancies between bookmaker odds and predicted-model odds.

Keywords: Fixed odds betting rules; away win; bookmakers’ probabilities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D81 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19 pages
Date: 2008-09
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http://carecon.org.uk/DPs/0807.pdf First version, 2008 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: A Statistical Development of Fixed Odds Betting Rules in Soccer (2009)
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