The effect of output on employment in Poland during the COVID-19 pandemic

Bartosik Krzysztof ()
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Bartosik Krzysztof: Institute of Economics, Polish Academy of Sciences, ul. Nowy Świat 72, 00-330 Warsaw, Poland

Economics and Business Review, 2024, vol. 10, issue 3, 58-83

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant decline in output, as well as economic policies aimed at mitigating the negative effects of the pandemic. Both of these factors had an impact on the labour market. This paper investigates changes in employment across groups of workers during the coronavirus pandemic in Poland and the effect of output on these changes. Firstly, it examines changes in employment growth rates across different groups of workers in 2020. Secondly, the paper analyses the impact of the coronavirus crisis on employment by comparing actual and predicted employment growth during the pandemic period (2020). Using Okun’s law, Ordinary Least Squares, and quarterly data, the elasticities of employment growth with respect to GDP growth in the pre-pandemic period (2003–2019) are calculated. These elasticities are then used to estimate projected employment growth during the pandemic. The results suggest that the total employment response to output change was relatively small, compared to the historical pattern. However, the response was unequal across groups of workers. The youngest workers, particularly women, and those with temporary employment contracts were most affected by the pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19; employment; employment elasticity; Okun’s law (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 E32 J21 J23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:ecobur:v:10:y:2024:i:3:p:58-83:n:1006

DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2024.3.1490

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