Fay-Herriot Model-Based Prediction Alternatives for Estimating Households with Emigrated Members

Fúquene-Patiño Jairo (), Cristancho César (), Ospina Mariana () and Gonzalez Domingo Morales ()
Additional contact information
Fúquene-Patiño Jairo: UC Davis, Department of Statistics, Davis, California, 95616–5270, U.S.A.
Cristancho César: National Department of Statistics, Population projections division, Bogota, Colombia.
Ospina Mariana: National Department of Statistics, Population projections division, Bogota, Colombia.
Gonzalez Domingo Morales: The Miguel Hernández University of Elche (UMH), Centro de Investigación Operativa, Departamento de Estadistica, Matemáticas, Avenida de la Universidad s/n ELCHE, 03202, Spain.

Journal of Official Statistics, 2021, vol. 37, issue 3, 771-789

Abstract: This article proposes a new methodology for estimating the proportions of households that had experience of international migration at the municipal level in Colombia. The Colombian National Statistical Office usually produces estimations of internal migration based on the results of population censuses, but there is a lack of disaggregated information about the main small areas of origin of the population that emigrates from Colombia. The proposed methodology uses frequentist and Bayesian approaches based on a Fay-Herriot model and is illustrated by one example with a dependent variable from the Demographic and Health Survey 2015 and covariables available from the population census 2005. The proposed alternative produces proportion estimates that are consistent with sample sizes and the main internal immigration trends in Colombia. Additionally, the estimated coefficients of variation are lower than 20% for municipalities for both frequentist and Bayesian approaches and large demographically-relevant capital cities and therefore estimates may be considered to be reliable. Finally, we illustrate how the proposed alternative leads to important reductions of the estimated coefficients of variations for the areas with very small sample sizes.

Keywords: Small area estimation; international migration; Fay-Herriot model; coefficient of variation; direct estimator; model-based estimator; hierarchical Bayes prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:offsta:v:37:y:2021:i:3:p:771-789:n:11

DOI: 10.2478/jos-2021-0034

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