Forced Displacement, the Perpetuation of Autocratic Leadership, and Development in Origin Countries

Nicolás Cabra-Ruiz, Sandra Rozo and María Micaela Sviatschi

No 11049, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: When millions flee an autocratic regime, what happens to the country they leave behind? In Venezuela, nearly 38.8 percent of the population have left since 2013. Using pre-crisis variation in foreign settlement shares across municipalities to instrument for displacement outflows, we find that affected municipalities experienced a 29.4 percent GDP contraction, mirrored in higher poverty and unemployment. Paradoxically, the exodus sustained autocracy by weakening political opposition and strengthening organized crime, funneling illicit rents and armed enforcement to the regime. Forced displacement from autocratic contexts thus simultaneously induces underdevelopment and entrenches the political and social conditions that perpetuate it.

Date: 2025-01-28
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