Long-Term Effects of Early Childhood Exposure to Droughts in MENA

Nelly Youssef Louis William Elmallakh, Roberta V. Gatti, Asif Mohammed Islam and Mennatallah Emam Mohamed Sayed Mousa

No 11190, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: This paper examines the long-term impacts of early-life drought exposure on the human capital and socioeconomic outcomes of women born in the Arab Republic of Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco across more than five decades. Using a pooled cross-section of 13 rounds of the Demographic and Health Surveys, the paper demonstrates that early childhood drought exposure significantly hinders female education, leading to lower educational attainment, increased illiteracy, and reduced likelihood of secondary school completion. These adverse effects are concentrated among women from rural households, suggesting that drought impacts operate through disruptions to agricultural livelihoods. Furthermore, the paper finds that early-life drought exposure is associated with reduced adult height, an increased likelihood of early marriage, and continued engagement in agricultural labor. This study provides novel evidence on the enduring human costs of climate variability in the Middle East and North Africa region, highlighting the urgent need for targeted policy interventions to mitigate the socioeconomic vulnerabilities of rural women in the face of climate change.

Date: 2025-08-19
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