Field-Scale Rice Area and Yield Mapping in Sri Lanka with Optical Remote Sensing and Limited Training Data

Mutlu Özdogan, Sherrie Wang, Devaki Ghose, Eduardo Fraga, Ana Margarida Fernandes and Gonzalo J. Varela

No 11194, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: Rice is a staple crop for over half the world’s population, and accurate, timely information on its planted area and production is crucial for food security and agricultural policy, particularly in developing nations like Sri Lanka. However, reliable rice monitoring in regions like Sri Lanka faces significant challenges due to frequent cloud cover and the fragmented nature of small-holder farms. This research introduces a novel, cost-effective method for mapping rice planted area and yield at field scales in Sri Lanka using optical satellite data. The rice planted fields were identified and mapped using a phenologically-tuned image classification algorithm that high-lights rice presence by observing water occurrence during transplanting and vegetation activity during subsequent crop growth. To estimate yields, a random forest regression model was trained at the district level by incorporating a satellite-derived chlorophyll index and environmental variables and subsequently applied at the field level. The approach has enabled the creation of two decades (2000–2022) of reliable, field-scale rice area and yield estimates, achieving map accuracies between 70% and over 90% and yield estimations with less than 20% RMSE. These highly granular results, which were previously unattainable through traditional surveys, show strong correlation with government statistics. They also demonstrate the ad-vantages of a rule-based, phenology-driven classification over purely statistical machine learning models for long-term consistency in dynamic agricultural environments. This work highlights the significant potential of remote sensing to provide accurate and detailed insights into rice cultivation, supporting policy decisions and enhancing food security in Sri Lanka and other cloud-prone regions.

Date: 2025-08-20
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