Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations: Intertwined Crises, Multiple Vulnerabilities

Samuel Hill, Jeetendra Khadan and Peter Metin Selcuk

No 11210, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: Home to more than 1 billion people, the 39 emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) classified as being in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS) are plagued by instability and weak institutions. This hinders their ability to attain the robust, sustained economic growth needed for development. These economies exhibit lower per capita incomes, slower economic growth, and greater volatility than other developing countries. Conflicts impose a high human and economic toll on many economies classified as FCS. High-intensity conflicts are associated with a cumulative loss in per capita GDP of about 20 percent five years after their onset, relative to pre-conflict projections. FCS economies experienced far deeper contractions than other EMDEs during the COVID-19 pandemic, and their recovery has been much weaker. About 70 percent of FCS economies are either at high risk of or already in debt distress—up from around 40 percent a decade ago. Employment growth continues to lag population growth. Tailored policies, reforms, and sustained global support are needed to expand opportunities for economic growth and job creation in FCS economies. Case studies from a diverse group of economies that were formerly afflicted by conflict in Africa, Asia, and Europe provide policy insights.

Date: 2025-09-08
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