When Does a Village Become a Town ? Revisiting Pakistan’s Urbanization Using Satellite Data

Oscar Eduardo Barriga Cabanillas, Marziya Farooq, Moritz Meyer and Christina Wieser

No 11247, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: This study revisits Pakistan’s level of urbanization using satellite imagery and the Degree of Urbanization methodology. While official statistics report that 39 percent of the population resides in urban areas, this analysis reveals that the true figure is closer to 88 percent. The substantial discrepancy arises from Pakistan’s reliance on administrative boundaries that do not reflect actual population density or settlement patterns. The findings indicate that secondary cities and peri-urban areas—not megacities—are the primary drivers of recent urban expansion and are systematically overlooked by the official classifications. The discrepancy between functional and administrative classifications of urban areas has important fiscal and planning implications. Misclassified areas reduce property tax revenues and undermine the planning and provision of critical public services. Moreover, misclassification distorts spatial socioeconomic indicators, masking the true extent of urban-rural disparities and complicating the design of effective, evidence-based public policy.

Date: 2025-10-29
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