Global Fertility Responses to Climate-Related Hazards Depend on Population Disruption, Lethality, and Hazard Type

Leonardo Bonilla Mejía, Alejandro Lopez-Feldman, Ana Maria Tribin Uribe and Stefany Lopez Vera

No 11330, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: Global fertility is declining, yet it remains unclear whether and how climate-related hazards contribute to realized fertility change. This paper combines global fertility data with disaster records for 1950–2023 to estimate fertility responses to climate-related hazards, distinguishing between population disruption (affected-rate exposure) and lethality (death-rate exposure). Climate-related hazards show no systematic fertility response under population disruption but are associated with persistent fertility reductions under lethality lasting at least 15 years. Aggregate climate estimates mask heterogeneity across hazard types: storms and drought-related hazards drive fertility declines, whereas heat and cold waves are associated with modest fertility increases. Hydrological events show additional negative effects in high-lethality episodes. Over time, disruption-based effects remain weak, and lethality-based effects are consistently negative, although they have attenuated in recent decades. Fertility responses vary little across income groups, and non-climate disasters remain fertility-reducing. These results show that fertility responses to climate risk depend on hazard type and lethal severity, rather than on how many people are affected.

Date: 2026-03-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem and nep-env
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