Innovation Patterns in the World Bank Group Portfolio: A Pilot Analysis of IEG Evaluations for Lending Operations

Natalia Agapitova, Anastasia Nedayvoda, Stephen Joseph Winkler, Amschel Nathaniel De Rothschild, Ergun Ertekin and Sarah Lenoble

No 11392, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: This paper employs large-scale text analytics and generative artificial intelligence methods to analyze innovation patterns within the World Bank Group portfolio. It draws on more than 7,500 Independent Evaluation Group project evaluations completed between 1998 and 2025. The study finds that, on average, innovative projects are associated with higher performance outcomes. It also identifies several key enabling factors for innovation at the World Bank Group, including disciplined experimentation, flexible and adaptive project designs, contextualization to local settings, participatory approaches in the design and piloting of new solutions, and visionary and supportive internal leadership. The analysis reveals that innovation within the World Bank Group has evolved over time from sporadic experimentation to an embedded organizational capability. However, significant constraints persist, such as bureaucratic fragmentation, capacity gaps, overly complex project designs, lack of continuity in scaling innovations, and insufficient incentives for learning and adaptation.

Date: 2026-05-20
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