Can the Flying Geese Fly Again? Automation and the Pattern of Industrialization

Erhan Artuc, Alessandro Barattieri, Isambert Leunga Noukwe and Aaditya Mattoo

No 11468, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: Three key developments, protectionism, aging, and automation, are affecting the global pattern of industrial production and trade. While these trends affect many countries, they are especially consequential for China, which currently dominates global manufacturing. Using a multi-country model fitted with global trade and robotization data, this paper shows that automation can mitigate the adverse effects of protection and aging on competitiveness, particularly in sectors with a high share of automatable tasks. The impact of a 10 percent decline in labor force in China would be offset by doubling of robot productivity in vehicles, but robot productivity would need to more than triple in computers.

Date: 2026-09-28
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