Distributional Effects of Market-Oriented Reforms in Uzbekistan: A Macro-Micro Simulation Approach

Gladys Lopez-Acevedo, Alhassane Camara, Ha Vu, Jaime Alfonso Roche Rodriguez and Ikuko Uochi

No 11482, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: Uzbekistan is advancing a comprehensive package of market-oriented reforms as part of its World Trade Organization accession strategy, including the abolition of monopolies, trade liberalization (removal of a range of export-related subsidies and tax incentives), the elimination of domestic producer preferences in public procurement, and an anticipated rise in foreign direct investment. This paper evaluates the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of reforms using an integrated computable general equilibrium–microsimulation framework that combines the World Bank’s MANAGE-WB model with household-level data from the 2024 Uzbekistan Household Budget Survey. The results show that the coordinated reform package generates substantial efficiency gains, raising annual gross domestic product growth by approximately 1.0 percentage point above a 5.8 percent baseline between 2025 and 2040, with an additional 0.4 percentage point gain when complemented by a foreign direct investment boost. Consumer prices fall cumulatively by up to 19.5 percent, and welfare improvements are driven primarily through enhanced purchasing power rather than nominal wage increases. The abolition of monopolies emerges as the dominant macroeconomic driver, while trade liberalizat ion sustains long-term productivity growth and the removal of procurement preferences plays a complementary role. These gains are uneven across groups including gender, sectors, and location, and gender wage gaps remain largely unchanged. The findings underscore the importance of complementarities between competition policy, trade liberalization, and foreign direct investment promotion, as well as the need for targeted human capital, labor mobility, and social protection policies to ensure that reforms translate into broadly inclusive outcomes.

Date: 2026-10-08
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