Voices of the Coast: Spatial versus Household Heterogeneity in Adaptation Needs in Bangladesh

Tom Schwantje, Bramka Arga Jafino, Margaret Triyana and Swarna Kazi

No 11498, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: Area-based and household-based targeting have been widely implemented to allocate resources for program implementation. The efficiency and equity consequences of this targeting choice depend on whether intervention needs are primarily shared within locations or vary substantially across neighboring households within a community. This paper develops a diagnostic approach that compares out-of-sample predictive accuracy from area-based, household-based, and hybrid models to identify households in need. Using a survey of about 5,000 households in coastal Bangladesh, this paper finds heterogeneity across climate adaptation needs. Self-reported infrastructure needs are spatially concentrated, while needs related to knowledge or technology vary across households within a community. These results imply that area-based allocation is likely efficient for public infrastructure, but it can generate substantial exclusion errors for livelihood support, making household-level screening essential despite higher administrative costs. The diagnostic provides a practical rule-of-thumb for when the marginal cost of screening is justified by improved targeting.

Date: 2026-11-06
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