Three Macroeconomic Trends Around the Onset of Armed Conflict in Developing Economies

Daniel Lederman and Claudio Rojas Guzmán

No 8647, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: This paper studies the evolution of three macroeconomic variables (namely current fiscal expenditures, public debt, and consumer-price inflation) around the time of the onset of armed conflicts during 1950-2016. The authors compare the performance of these variables in conflict-afflicted economies with economies that did not experience social conflict. The analyses cover episodes of conflict from around the world and study the evolution of these variables during the five years prior to and five years after the onset of conflicts. Further, four alternative definitions of social conflict are used to ascertain the robustness of the econometric results. The evidence suggests that current fiscal expenditures and public debt (both as a share of gross domestic product) in conflict-afflicted economies tend to be higher than in non-conflict economies prior to the onset of conflict, begin to rise further prior to the date of the onset of conflict, and stay relatively high after the onset of conflict. In contrast, there is little evidence that inflation is higher in conflict-afflicted economies, prior to or after the onset of conflict. These differential trends between conflict-afflicted and non-conflict economies shed new light on the existing literature on macroeconomic populism, and on key macroeconomic aspects of the economics of post-conflict reconstruction.

Keywords: Inflation; Armed Conflict; Macroeconomic Management; Social Cohesion; Economic Growth; Industrial Economics; Economic Theory&Research (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-11-15
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/763071542314874296/pdf/WPS8647.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8647

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Roula I. Yazigi ().