The Impact of Demographic Change on Spousal Caregiving and Future Gaps in Long-term Care: Microsimulation Projections for Austria and Italy

Philipp Warum, Fabrizio Culotta, Ulrike Famira-Mühlberger, Gerard Horvath, Thomas Leoni, Pauline Pohl and Martin Spielauer
Additional contact information
Philipp Warum: WIFO
Fabrizio Culotta: University of Milano-Bicocca
Ulrike Famira-Mühlberger: WIFO
Thomas Leoni: University of Applied Sciences Wiener Neustadt
Pauline Pohl: WIFO
Martin Spielauer: WIFO

No 709, WIFO Working Papers from WIFO

Abstract: As populations age, the sustainability of long-term care systems increasingly depends on the availability of informal care, particularly from partners. This paper addresses the question of how much care we may expect partners to provide in the future by projecting demand for long-term care (LTC), the care supply mix based on current patterns, and the resulting care gaps up to 2070. Using a comparative dynamic microsimulation model, we contrast the results for Austria and Italy, two countries at very different stages in the ageing process and with pronounced institutional differences. Our results suggest that delayed widowhood due to improvements in mortality is a mitigating factor for the increased need for formal care in ageing societies, although it can only offset this increase to a limited extent. Even under optimistic assumptions, potential care gaps substantially increase in both countries, primarily due to demographic change. The size of these gaps is influenced by institutional settings, partnership patterns and gains in longevity, but no scenario reverses the overall upward trend. These findings emphasize the need for comprehensive LTC reforms that extend beyond merely promoting informal care and highlight the necessity for substantial investment in formal care infrastructure.

Keywords: Population ageing; Long-term care; Spousal caregiving; Care gap; Projections; Dynamic microsimulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 60 pages
Date: 2025-07-28
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age and nep-hea
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.wifo.ac.at/?p=429657 abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2025:i:709

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in WIFO Working Papers from WIFO Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Florian Mayr ().