Overshadowed by War and Sanctions

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky (), Selena Duraković (), Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiß, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Artem Kochnev, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara (), Bernhard Moshammer, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanovic, Zuzana Zavarska and Adam Żurawski
Additional contact information
Rumen Dobrinsky: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/rumen-dobrinsky-s-84.html
Selena Duraković: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/selena-durakovic-s-1658.html

No Spring2022, wiiw Forecast Reports from The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw

Abstract: Our Spring 2022 Forecast comes at a time of pronounced global uncertainty, arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and wide-ranging Western sanctions on Russia. To take account of this, we distinguish between two extreme scenarios. In the baseline scenario, which assumes no further major Western sanctions and some kind of a ceasefire by the middle of 2022, recessions this year will be confined to Ukraine and the bulk of the CIS; elsewhere in CESEE, growth forecasts have been revised downwards by 1-2 percentage points compared to Winter. However, in the adverse scenario, which assumes a further war escalation and an immediate EU embargo on Russian energy, half of the CESEE region will slide into recession, while inflation will soar into the double-digit range nearly everywhere.

Keywords: CESEE; economic forecast; Central and Eastern Europe; Western Balkans; EU; euro area; CIS; Ukraine; Turkey; convergence; business cycle; coronavirus; labour markets; unemployment; Russia-Ukraine war; Russia sanctions; commodity prices; price controls; trade disruptions; Ukrainian refugees; energy embargo; monetary policy; fiscal policy; impact on Austria (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E20 E21 E22 E24 E32 E5 E62 F21 F31 H60 I18 J20 J30 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 151 pages including 32 Tables, and 46 Figures
Date: 2022-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis and nep-mac
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Published as wiiw Forecast Report

Downloads: (external link)
https://wiiw.ac.at/overshadowed-by-war-and-sanctions-dlp-6138.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:spring2022

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in wiiw Forecast Reports from The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Customer service ().