Assessing the impact of Trump´s tariffs on the region

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković (), Mahdi Ghodsi, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiß, Marcus How, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Benedetta Locatelli, Isilda Mara (), Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Oliver Reiter, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
Additional contact information
Selena Duraković: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/selena-durakovic-s-1658.html

No Spring2025, wiiw Forecast Reports from The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw

Abstract: The global economy is set to suffer from new US tariffs, which will remain above pre-2025 levels and drive trade disruptions, financial volatility, and a downgrade in euro area GDP this year. In CESEE, the tariffs and their spillover effects from the EU, especially Germany, will slow regional growth to 2.6% in 2025. Private consumption and investment continue to support growth, but exports will struggle amid the US-led trade war. Political instability, unresolved conflicts, and ongoing risks from the war in Ukraine—compounded by the potential for an unfavourable settlement or Ukrainian collapse—pose additional threats to CESEE’s economic outlook and regional security.

Keywords: CESEE Central and Eastern Europe; economic forecast; Western Balkans; CIS; Ukraine; Russia; Turkey; EU; business cycle; economic sentiment; euro area; convergence; labour markets; unemployment; Russia-Ukraine war; commodity prices; inflation; price controls; trade disruptions; renewable energy; gas; electricity; monetary policy; fiscal policy; impact on Austria (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E20 E21 E22 E24 E32 E5 E62 F21 F31 H60 I18 J20 J30 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 152 pages including 30 Tables and 48 Figures and 4 Boxes
Date: 2025-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-eec and nep-mac
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Published as wiiw Forecast Report

Downloads: (external link)
https://wiiw.ac.at/assessing-the-impact-of-trump-s ... e-region-p-7289.html Order URL / Description (text/html)
Only to order

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:spring2025

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in wiiw Forecast Reports from The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Customer service ().