How Do New Technologies Diffuse?

Carsten Fink, Maria de las Mercedes Menéndez and Julio Raffo

No 91, WIPO Economic Research Working Papers from World Intellectual Property Organization - Economics and Statistics Division

Abstract: Technology diffusion is central to economic development. This paper examines diffusion patterns for 31 technologies for 139 countries over two centuries, extending existing databases to include recent digital technologies and renewable energy technologies. Using cross-country panel regressions, we find that while adoption lags have declined from 50 years (pre-1950) to 15 years (post-2000), adoption intensity in developing economies remains at 53% of advanced economy levels. We document diverging intensity for older technologies but emerging convergence for post-2000 technologies, suggesting digital innovations may reduce the technology gap. These findings inform policies aimed at accelerating technology diffusion to developing economies.

Keywords: Technology diffusion; Digital technologies; Adoption lag; Intensity of use (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O33 O47 O57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ict and nep-pay
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