Speculation-led growth and fragility in Turkey: Does EU make a difference or "can it happen again"?

Ozlem Onaran

No 93, Department of Economics Working Paper Series from WU Vienna University of Economics and Business

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyze the pattern of speculation-led growth in Turkey. It is dependent on international capital flows, whose continuity becomes more and more critical given the current account deficit, which is estimated to reach 6.1% as a ratio to GDP at the end of 2005. The paper assesses the sustainability of this speculation-led growth in the context of EU enlargement and compares the current state of fragility with former crises in Turkey as well as in East Asia and Latin America. Following a severe financial crisis in 2001, Turkey has entered a new phase of fragile growth led by boom-euphoric expectations. The paper aims at explaining this new phase and the evolution of the risk perceptions of both the creditors as well as the debtors in this "speculation game" based on the post-Keynesian/Minskyan concepts of endogenous expectations and financial fragility. (author's abstract)

Keywords: financial fragility; Post-Keynesian; current account deficit; EU enlargement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
https://epub.wu.ac.at/1118/ original version (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 403 Forbidden (https://epub.wu.ac.at/1118/ [308 PERMANENT REDIRECT]--> https://epub.wu.ac.at/id/eprint/1118 [302 FOUND]--> https://research.wu.ac.at/en/publications/8a9373ba-0b3c-4979-b22d-e26915a33809)

Related works:
Working Paper: Speculation-led growth and fragility in Turkey: Does EU make a difference or "can it happen again"? (2006)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wiw:wus005:1118

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Department of Economics Working Paper Series from WU Vienna University of Economics and Business Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, Austria.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by WU Library ().