What Do People Mean by Social Mobility? Dimensions, Indicators, and the Great Gatsby Curve

Moritz Hörl and Michael Keinprecht

No 402, Department of Economics Working Paper Series from WU Vienna University of Economics and Business

Abstract: Rankings of social mobility depend critically on the dimension and indicator used. Societies that rank highly on one measure may rank poorly on another, yet existing research offers limited guidance for selecting among competing measures. We provide the first systematic evidence on preferences over four dimensions of social mobility (education, occupation, income, and wealth) and three indicators of income mobility: the rank-rank slope (RRS), absolute mobility (AM), and upward mobility from the bottom (CER25). Using a conjoint experiment and a within-subject rating design, we examine how a broadly representative US sample (N = 1,002) and experts (N = 99) rate different dimensions and indicators of social mobility. We embed these preference-based approaches in a social-welfare framework to shed light on the underlying assumptions of the different indicators of social mobility. We report five sets of findings. First, each indicator is an exact welfare- sufficient statistic for a distinct social objective, and no indicator satisfies all normatively appealing axioms. Second, income is the dimension the public values most, in a ranking that is stable across demographic subgroups. Third, the RRS, the indicator most prominent in the academic literature, receives the least public support. AM and CER25 receive greater support, with roughly 70% of the gap associated with lower perceived fairness. Fourth, experts share the public's ranking of dimensions but support CER25 more and AM less. Finally, incorporating these preferences into a social mobility composite measure substantially attenuates the Great Gatsby curve and shifts US state rankings by up to 32 positions. These findings provide an empirical basis for selecting social mobility measures and designing evidence-based policy targets aligned with public preferences.

Keywords: social mobility; intergenerational persistence; public preferences; Great Gatsby curve; social welfare (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-11
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