The Impact of Incarceration on Employment, Earnings, and Tax Filing

Andrew Garin, Dmitri Koustas, Carl McPherson, Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, Evan K. Rose, Yotam Shem‐Tov and Jeffrey Weaver

Econometrica, 2025, vol. 93, issue 2, 503-538

Abstract: We study the effect of incarceration on wages, self‐employment, and taxes and transfers in North Carolina and Ohio using two quasi‐experimental research designs: discontinuities in sentencing guidelines and random assignment to judges. Across both states, incarceration generates short‐term drops in economic activity while individuals remain in prison. As a result, a year‐long sentence decreases cumulative earnings over five years by 13%. Beyond five years, however, there is no evidence of lower employment, wage earnings, or self‐employment in either state, as well as among defendants with no prior incarceration history. These results suggest that upstream factors, such as other types of criminal justice interactions or pre‐existing labor market detachment, are more likely to be the cause of low earnings among the previously incarcerated, who we estimate would earn just $5000 per year on average if spared a prison sentence.

Date: 2025
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