Monetary policy transmission under pandemic uncertainty: Effect on banks' risk and capital adjustments

Moau Yong Toh and Dekui Jia

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2025, vol. 30, issue 3, 2803-2828

Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy on the simultaneous adjustments in asset portfolio risk and capital of banks amidst the uncertainty of the COVID‐19 pandemic, focusing on the 12 largest economies from 2018 Q1 to 2021 Q4. Results indicate that banks show lower portfolio risk and capital levels when the monetary policy stance is eased. However, amid heightened pandemic uncertainty, the risk‐reducing effect of monetary policy on banks amplifies, while bank capital levels remain unchanged. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that banks with higher levels of diversification and herding are more responsive to interest rates amid pandemic uncertainty, exhibiting lower risk exposure in their asset portfolios. Banks in countries adopting negative interest rate policies also tend to assume greater asset risk to accommodate the intended stimulus of monetary policies.

Date: 2025
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https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.3044

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