Hedging Multiple Price Uncertainty in Soybean Export

Siun Lee and Dmitry Vedenov

Journal of Futures Markets, 2025, vol. 45, issue 6, 600-611

Abstract: Exporting companies encounter various sources of price uncertainty and can choose between hedging each risk separately or jointly. This study analyzes the differences between these strategies in terms of their performance. For practical analysis, we assume a representative exporter in the US that ships soybeans to Europe and faces input price risk (domestic soybean price) and output price risk (Euro/US dollar exchange rate). Our study reveals that joint hedging typically enhances hedging effectiveness (HE) the most, although the benefits may be limited in specific circumstances. We also find that the baseline level of risk stemming from the soybean price movement plays a crucial role in determining the performance of the hedging strategy. Higher market risks, such as a high soybean price and increased price volatility, contribute to better HE. Conversely, when the initial risk is low, such as in cases of depreciated domestic currency value, significant improvement in HE is less likely. Joint hedging allows simultaneous response to multiple risks, but single‐commodity hedging is faster in responding to individual price risks, especially when this risk originates from the commodity that is being hedged. However, if a firm opts for single hedging and faces a price risk from an unhedged source, a significant loss in HE occurs compared with joint hedging. The study also confirms that price dependence affects HE, with higher dependence between spot and futures prices resulting in more effective hedging. In cases of high dependence between the two commodities' prices, joint hedging performs relatively better than single‐commodity hedging due to the presence of offsetting risks. Our findings suggest that the choice between joint and single hedging should be tailored to the specific risk exposures faced by firms in the soybean and foreign exchange (FX) markets. This decision should take into account factors, such as shock means, shock volatilities, and dependencies between commodity and FX rates.

Date: 2025
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