Real option analysis of a technology portfolio

Petri Hilli, Maarit Kallio and Markku Kallio

Review of Financial Economics, 2007, vol. 16, issue 2, 127-147

Abstract: This article contributes to methodology of real options analysis of investments in capital intensive process industries, where relatively homogenous outputs are produced using commonly known production technologies. In addition to capacity expansion, the method can be used for analysis of mergers and acquisitions. Valuation of the real option is based on bid price; i.e., the maximum price the firm is willing to pay. To find such a price, stochastic optimization with an expected utility criterion is used to determine investments in product specific technologies as well as in publicly traded financial instruments (the competing investments). To operationalize the valuation principle, we develop a double binary tree employing Kalman filter for scenario generation. For exponential utility, valuation is carried out by dynamic programming. We extend known methods to allow interdependence of the mill cash flow and return on competing financial investments. For forest industries, we provide an illustration, where the underlying price process in our Kalman filter application is a vector error correction model.

Date: 2007
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rfe.2005.07.002

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:revfec:v:16:y:2007:i:2:p:127-147

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Review of Financial Economics from John Wiley & Sons
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().