Extended Commentary—Blitz on the West: Ukraine as Ground Zero of China's New Great Game

William H. Thornton and Songok Han Thornton

World Affairs, 2025, vol. 188, issue 2

Abstract: The task of this commentary is to explore the place of the Ukraine War in China's New Great Game. It is a standard realist trope, crudely adopted by MAGA pundits, that the war is a regional conflict that was born in NATO expansion and warrants little U.S. support. Taking this strategically reductive position is rather like trying to treat the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 as a basically Caribbean event. The fact is that Ukraine is a victim of unprecedented (since the Stalin era) Russian aggression, not Western machinations, and since 2022 Russia's massive invasion has been entirely dependent on China's backing. Apart from Ukraine itself, Russia has been the war's biggest loser, while China has been its colossal winner. In a negotiated “peace” mediated by the Trump administration, Russia will likely secure a chunk of Ukraine about the size of Virginia, whereas China will almost surely end up as the de facto hegemon of Eurasia as a whole, with Russia serving as its regional proxy. 这篇评论的任务是探索乌克兰战争在中国新大博弈中的位置。这是一个标准的现实主义比喻, 被 MAGA 专家粗暴地采用, 即这场战争是一场因北约扩张而产生的地区冲突, 几乎不需要美国的支持。采取这种战略上的简化立场就像试图将 1962 年的古巴导弹危机视为加勒比海事件。事实是, 乌克兰是史无前例的 (自斯大林时代以来) 俄罗斯侵略的受害者, 而不是西方阴谋的受害者, 自 2022 年以来, 俄罗斯的大规模入侵完全依赖于中国的支持。除了乌克兰本身, 俄罗斯是这场战争的最大输家, 而中国是这场战争的巨大赢家。在特朗普政府斡旋下达成的“和平”协议中, 俄罗斯可能会获得相当于弗吉尼亚州面积的乌克兰领土, 而中国几乎肯定会成为整个欧亚大陆事实上的霸主, 而俄罗斯将成为其地区代理人。 El objetivo de este comentario es explorar el lugar que ocupa la guerra de Ucrania en el Nuevo Gran Juego de China. Es un cliché realista habitual, adoptado con crudeza por los expertos del MAGA, que la guerra es un conflicto regional surgido de la expansión de la OTAN y que justifica poco apoyo estadounidense. Adoptar esta postura estratégicamente reductiva es como intentar tratar la Crisis de los Misiles de Cuba de 1962 como un evento básicamente caribeño. Lo cierto es que Ucrania es víctima de una agresión rusa sin precedentes (desde la era de Stalin), no de maquinaciones occidentales, y desde 2022 la invasión masiva de Rusia ha dependido completamente del apoyo de China. Aparte de la propia Ucrania, Rusia ha sido la mayor perdedora de la guerra, mientras que China ha sido su colosal ganadora. En una “paz” negociada con la mediación de la administración Trump, Rusia probablemente se asegurará una porción de Ucrania del tamaño de Virginia, mientras que China casi con seguridad terminará como la potencia hegemónica de facto de Eurasia en su conjunto, con Rusia sirviendo como su representante regional.

Date: 2025
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