The Future Population of China: Prospects to 2045 by Place of Residence and by Level of Education

G-Y. Cao

Working Papers from International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Abstract: Using methods of multi-state population projection, the population of China up to 2045 was studied by simultaneous interacting states of educational categories and urban/rural residence in three alternative future paths. The results anticipate that in 2045, more than 60% of the population will have secondary education, while this was the case for only 8% of the population in 1964. This study not only produces educational projections, it also provides regular population projections by age, sex, and urban/rural place of residence. In the coming decades, China will reach its peak in total population, working population, and aging population in different times under low, medium and high scenarios. According to results of this study, an important question will face Chinese policy makers in the context of sustainable socioeconomic and environmental development: How should the anticipated socioeconomic developments in the coming decades be figured into the demographic trade-off between rapid fertility decline in the near term and rapid population aging in the long term?

Date: 2000-04
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