Opinion Polls, Turnout and the Demand for Safe Seats

Eleonora Alabrese and Thiemo Fetzer
Additional contact information
Eleonora Alabrese : University of Bath and QAPEC

The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) from University of Warwick, Department of Economics

Abstract: Do opinion polls sway turnout and shape political competition in majoritarian systems? Can they strengthen the persistence of safe seats? Analysing national opinion polls during UK general elections and the perceived safeness of constituencies, we find that pre-election polls significantly affect voter turnout. Non-competitive elections predicted by national polls suppress turnout, especially in areas with low perceived electoral competition. This reinforces the advantage of trailing parties in their strongholds, potentially fuelling party demand for safe seats that may give rise to demands for gerrymandering. This can exacerbate spatial polarization of the electoral landscape, with implications for governance regarding opinion polling.

Keywords: Opinion Polls; Closeness; Voters Behaviour; Firstpast-the-post; UK general elections JEL Codes: D72; P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/w ... rp_1494_-_fetzer.pdf

Related works:
Working Paper: Opinion Polls, Turnout and the Demand for Safe Seats (2024)
Working Paper: Opinion Polls, Turnout and the Demand for Safe Seats (2024)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wrk:warwec:1494

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) from University of Warwick, Department of Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Margaret Nash ().