The Normalization of the Far-Right: When the Salience of Victories Matters

Margot Belguise
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Margot Belguise: University of Warwick

The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) from University of Warwick, Department of Economics

Abstract: Far-right voting is stigmatized, yet rising worldwide. Do signals of the far-right’s popularity embolden voters to support it, even in the secrecy of the voting booth? I exploit quasiexperimental variation from the French two-round electoral system. When far-right candidates narrowly win round one—a purely symbolic victory—this brings them more votes in round two, held merely one week later. Evidence aligns with voters attending more to salient signals when they update beliefs about stigma strength. As predicted if voters attach greater weight to more salient signals, more unusual wins have larger effects. Leveraging a large corpus of newspaper articles I scraped, I show that these narrow wins attract media attention, which predicts the vote effect. Consistent with stigma erosion, this effect is specific to the far-right, larger where stigma is likely stronger, and persists in the next election. Using administrative records on campaign funding, I document similar patterns for campaign donations—acts of support that are less secret than votes and may therefore carry larger reputational costs. JEL Codes: P00 ; D72 ; D91

Date: 2025
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