ENERGY SECURITY OF CHINA, INDIA, THE E.U. AND THE U.S. UNDER LONG-TERM SCENARIOS: RESULTS FROM SIX IAMs

Jessica Jewell (), Aleh Cherp (), Vadim Vinichenko (), Nico Bauer (), Tom Kober (), McCOLLUM David (), Detlef P. van Vuuren () and Bob van der Zwaan ()
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Jessica Jewell: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria;
Aleh Cherp: Central European University, Budapest, Hungary
Vadim Vinichenko: Central European University, Budapest, Hungary
Nico Bauer: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Tom Kober: Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, Petten, The Netherlands
McCOLLUM David: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Detlef P. van Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands;

Climate Change Economics (CCE), 2013, vol. 04, issue 04, 1-33

Abstract: This paper assesses energy security in three long-term energy scenarios (business as usual development, a projection of Copenhagen commitments, and a 450 ppm stabilization scenario) as modeled in six integrated assessment models: GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, ReMIND, TIAM-ECN and WITCH. We systematically evaluate long-term vulnerabilities of vital energy systems of four major economies: China, the European Union (E.U.), India and the U.S., as expressed by several characteristics of energy trade, resource extraction, and diversity of energy options. Our results show that climate policies are likely to lead to significantly lower global energy trade and reduce energy imports of major economies, decrease the rate of resource depletion, and increase the diversity of energy options. China, India and the E.U. would derive particularly strong benefits from climate policies, whereas the U.S. may forego some opportunities to export fossil fuels in the second half of the century.

Keywords: Energy security; climate change; major economies; energy scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1142/S2010007813400113

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