ESTIMATES OF CHANGES IN COUNTY-LEVEL HOUSING PRICES IN THE UNITED STATES UNDER SCENARIOS OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE

Frances Sussman (), Bansari Saha, Britta G. Bierwagen, Christopher P. Weaver, Will Cooper, Philip E. Morefield and John V. Thomas
Additional contact information
Frances Sussman: ICF International, Environmental and Social Sustainability Division, 1725 Eye Street, NW, Washington DC 20006, USA
Bansari Saha: ICF International, Environmental and Social Sustainability Division, 100 Cambridgepark Drive, Cambridge, MA 02140, USA
Britta G. Bierwagen: US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, MC 8601-P, Washington DC 20460, USA
Christopher P. Weaver: US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, MC 8601-P, Washington DC 20460, USA
Will Cooper: ICF International, Environmental and Social Sustainability Division, 9300 Lee Highway, Fairfax, VA 22031, USA
Philip E. Morefield: US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, MC 8601-P, Washington DC 20460, USA
John V. Thomas: US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Sustainable Communities, Community Assistance and Research Division, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, MC 1807-T, Washington DC 20460, USA

Climate Change Economics (CCE), 2014, vol. 05, issue 03, 1-23

Abstract: Climate in a given location influences people's housing decisions, and changes in climate may affect these decisions in ways that alter our understanding of desirable locations. This study examines the potential sensitivity of future housing prices in the United States to changes in temperature, precipitation, and humidity by developing a hedonic regression model of the relationship between climate variables and housing prices and exploring implications of different climate futures for the amenity value of climate in these prices. The model shows a significant relationship between housing prices in urban areas and certain climate variables. The study then examines the sensitivity of the amenity value of climate to future climate scenarios. Results suggest that, nationally, climate change represents a disamenity, particularly in central-to-southeastern states. However, detailed housing prices vary spatially and among scenarios. Seasonal variation in temperature, including the relative magnitudes of the change in January and July temperatures, is a key determinant of housing price change, contributing to variation across both climate scenarios and geographic location.

Keywords: Amenity value; climate change; quality of life; hedonic housing model; downscaled climate data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1142/S2010007814500092

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