THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE IN WEST AFRICA: A BIO-ECONOMIC MODELING APPROACH

Boris O. K. Lokonon, Aklesso Y. G. Egbendewe, Naga Coulibaly and Calvin Atewamba
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Boris O. K. Lokonon: Department of Economics and Management Sciences (FASEG), University of Parakou, Parakou, Benin
Aklesso Y. G. Egbendewe: #x2020;Department of Economics and Management Sciences (FASEG), University of Lomé, Togo PO Box 1515, Lomé, Togo
Naga Coulibaly: #x2021;Department of Sciences and Environment Management, University of Nangui Abrogoua, Cote d’Ivoire
Calvin Atewamba: #xA7;United Nations University Institute for Natural Resources in Africa (UNU-INRA), Accra, Ghana

Climate Change Economics (CCE), 2019, vol. 10, issue 04, 1-30

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To that end, a bio-economic model is built and calibrated on 2004 base year dataset and the potential impact is evaluated on land use and crop production under two representative concentration pathways coupled with three socio-economic scenarios. The findings suggest that land use change may depend on crop types and prevailing future conditions. As of crop production, the results show that paddy rice, oilseeds, sugarcane, cocoa, coffee, and sesame production could experience a decline under both moderate and harsh climate conditions in most cases. Also, doubling crop yields by 2050 could overall mitigate the negative impact of moderate climate change. The magnitude and the direction of the impacts may vary in space and time.

Keywords: Climate change mitigation; socio-economic scenarios; integrated assessment models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1142/S2010007819500155

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