IMPACT OF PUBLIC HEALTH AWARENESS PROGRAMS ON COVID-19 DYNAMICS: A FRACTIONAL MODELING APPROACH

Zain Ul Abadin Zafar, Abdullahi Yusuf, Salihu S. Musa, Sania Qureshi, Ali S. Alshomrani and Dumitru Baleanu
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Zain Ul Abadin Zafar: Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, University of Central Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
Abdullahi Yusuf: ��Department of Computer Engineering, Biruni University, Istanbul, Turkey‡Department of Mathematics, Science Faculty, Federal University Dutse, Jigawa, Nigeria
Salihu S. Musa: �Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong¶Department of Mathematics, Kano University of Science and Technology, Wudil, Nigeria
Sania Qureshi: ��Department of Basic Sciences and Related Studies, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro 76062, Pakistan**Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Lebanese American University, Beirut, P. O. Box 13-5053, Lebanon††Department of Mathematics, Near East University, 99138 Mersin, Turkey
Ali S. Alshomrani: ��‡Department of Mathematics, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
Dumitru Baleanu: �§Department of Mathematics, Çankaya University, Öǧretmenler Cad. 1406530, Ankara, Turkey¶¶Institute of Space Sciences, Măgurele, Bucharest, Romania∥∥Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan

FRACTALS (fractals), 2023, vol. 31, issue 10, 1-20

Abstract: Public health awareness programs have been a crucial strategy in mitigating the spread of emerging and re-emerging infectious disease outbreaks of public health significance such as COVID-19. This study adopts an Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered (SEIR) based model to assess the impact of public health awareness programs in mitigating the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic. The proposed model, which incorporates public health awareness programs, uses ABC fractional operator approach to study and analyze the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. It is possible to completely understand the dynamics of the model’s features because of the memory effect and hereditary qualities that exist in the fractional version. The fixed point theorem has been used to prove the presence of a unique solution, as well as the stability analysis of the model. The nonlinear least-squares method is used to estimate the parameters of the model based on the daily cumulative cases of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria from March 29 to June 12, 2020. Through the use of simulations, the model’s best-suited parameters and the optimal ABC fractional-order parameter τ may be determined and optimized. The suggested model is proved to understand the virus’s dynamical behavior better than the integer-order version. In addition, numerous numerical simulations are run using an efficient numerical approach to provide further insight into the model’s features.

Keywords: Fractional; Optimal ABC; Boxplot; Least-Squares; Existence; Uniqueness (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1142/S0218348X23400054

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