CREDIT CYCLES IN COUNTRIES IN THE MENA REGION — DO THEY EXIST? DO THEY MATTER?

Leila Aghabarari () and Ahmed Rostom ()
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Leila Aghabarari: World Bank Group, 1818 H St NW, Washington DC, 20433 USA
Ahmed Rostom: World Bank Group, 1818 H St NW, Washington DC, 20433 USA

Global Economy Journal (GEJ), 2020, vol. 20, issue 01, 1-44

Abstract: This paper estimates the private sector credit cycles for most of the oil-importing and oil-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Credit cycles are the medium-term component in spectral analysis of real private sector credit growth. Besides, the paper estimates the credit cycles for several developed countries. The analysis finds substantial differences and rare similarities between credit cycles in the Middle East and North Africa and advanced countries. During 1964–2017, credit cycles in the Middle East and North Africa do not appear to be associated with GDP growth. They only explained a fraction of the growth in private sector credit, and they do not seem to be synchronized across oil-exporters and oil-importers.

Keywords: Credit cycles; MENA; oil-exporters; oil-importers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1142/S2194565920500013

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