USE OF BAYESIAN METHOD FOR ASSESSING VESSEL TRAFFIC RISKS AT SEA

Shenping Hu (), Xudong Li, Quangen Fang and Zaili Yang ()
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Shenping Hu: Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550 Pudong Ave, Shanghai, 200135, China
Xudong Li: Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550 Pudong Ave, Shanghai, 200135, China
Quangen Fang: Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550 Pudong Ave, Shanghai, 200135, China
Zaili Yang: School of Engineering, Liverpool John Moores University, Byrom Street, Liverpool L3 3AF, United Kingdom

International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), 2008, vol. 07, issue 04, 627-638

Abstract: Risks associated with a vessel traffic system at sea are analyzed according to the elements in this system and a new method is developed to ensure safe ship operation. Based on Bayes' point estimation and probability influence diagram to estimate the traffic accidents related to vessel traffic, an analysis model is established for the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the vessel traffic system at sea. After the analysis on occurrence likelihood of the accidents related to ship traffic, a structure on the basis of Bayesian networks is developed to obtain the QRA of their relative risks. QRA is also put forward after analyzing the features and situations of the vessel traffic system and identifying the corresponding hazards including characteristics of those hazards. The risk distributions of ship traffic are described and results are presented on QRA in relation to various features by using this risk assessment model. This method, verified in the cases of QRA, turns out to be feasible by the use of identified posterior probability.

Keywords: Ship; risk assessment; Bayesian point estimation; Bayesian belief network; probability influence diagram; safety factor (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1142/S0219622008003198

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