A Mathematics Model for Quantitative Analysis of Demand Disruption Caused by Rumor Spreading

Haifeng Zhao (), Bin Lin and Chongqing Guo
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Haifeng Zhao: School of Economic and Management, Tongji University, 1239, Siping Road, Shanghai, P. R. China
Bin Lin: School of Economic and Management, Tongji University, 1239, Siping Road, Shanghai, P. R. China
Chongqing Guo: School of Economic and Management, Tongji University, 1239, Siping Road, Shanghai, P. R. China

International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), 2014, vol. 13, issue 03, 585-602

Abstract: Rumors greatly impact consumers' attitudes and purchasing intention. Rumor spreading can disrupt supply chain demand, particularly in today's Internet age. We propose a mathematical model for the quantitative analysis of demand disruption caused by rumor spreading based on the susceptible-infective-isolated-immune (SI2I) rumor spreading model, which extends the susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) rumor spreading model by dividing stiflers into isolators and immunes. Both groups represent individuals who do not propagate a rumor, but the former believes the rumor while the latter does not. From the firms' perspective, only ignorants and immunes will still purchase their products and services after a rumor has spread. Hence, the influence of rumors on demand can be quantitatively reflected by the proportion of ignorants and immunes in the population. This study offers a new method for company managers to predict the variation trend of demand and estimate demand loss when a firm is attacked by rumors.

Keywords: Supply chain; demand disruption; rumor spreading; SI2I model; stimulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1142/S0219622014500515

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