A GENERALIZED MULTISCALE ANALYSIS OF THE PREDICTIVE CONTENT OF EURODOLLAR IMPLIED VOLATILITIES

Alessandro Cardinali ()
Additional contact information
Alessandro Cardinali: School of Mathematics, University of Bristol, University Walk, BS8 1TW Bristol, UK

International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), 2009, vol. 12, issue 01, 1-18

Abstract: It is widely believed that implied volatilities contains information that would enable prediction of spot volatility for a wide range of financial assets. Lead-lag analysis based on the Discrete Wavelet Transform has been proposed as one method for identifying and extracting that predictive information. Unfortunately this approach can fail to identify periodic components that are not proportional to an increasing dyadic scale. We propose a multiscale analysis of the Eurodollar realized volatility and at-the-money (ATM) implied volatilities. After filtering the long memory components we produce a decomposition of cross-correlation by using wavelet packet methods. A threshold cost functional based on asymptotic confidence intervals was used along with the best basis algorithm in order to select an adaptive frequency partition of the sample cross-correlation. We found substantial evidence that Eurodollar implied volatilities contain predictive information about realized volatilities. Moreover, in our analysis the new technique outperforms the lead-lag analysis based on the nondecimated Discrete Wavelet Transform. Therefore we contend that the proposed technique will improve detection of predictive information and recommend further testing in a range of applied contexts.

Keywords: ATM implied volatilities; nondecimated wavelet packet transform; best basis; cross-correlation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219024909005130
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:12:y:2009:i:01:n:s0219024909005130

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

DOI: 10.1142/S0219024909005130

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF) is currently edited by L P Hughston

More articles in International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF) from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Tai Tone Lim ().