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ON THE IMPACT OF HIDDEN TRENDS FOR A COMPOUND POISSON MODEL WITH PARETO-TYPE CLAIMS

Peter Grandits (), Reinhold Kainhofer () and Grigory Temnov ()
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Peter Grandits: Financial and Actuarial Mathematics, Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics, Vienna University of Technology, Wiedner Hauptstraße 8-10/105-1, A-1040 Vienna, Austria
Reinhold Kainhofer: Financial and Actuarial Mathematics, Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics, Vienna University of Technology, Wiedner Hauptstraße 8-10/105-1, A-1040 Vienna, Austria
Grigory Temnov: Edgeworth Centre for Financial Mathematics, School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Cork, Ireland

International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), 2010, vol. 13, issue 06, 959-978

Abstract: We consider a compound-Poisson model with Pareto-type claims. In contrast to the classical case, where the claims are assumed to be iid., we assume that scaling and location parameters of the Pareto distribution follow a certain trend. We investigate the impact of this trend on parameter estimation and on the VaR (Value-at-Risk), if one mis-specifies (or even neglects) this trend. In the first part we show a consistency result for the mis-specified model, in the second part the deviations of the true parameters from the ones obtained by applying an iid. procedure is measured. Finally we study the impact of the mis-specification on a typical risk measure like the VaR.

Keywords: ML estimation; consistency; pareto distribution; mis-specified models; trends (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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DOI: 10.1142/S0219024910006066

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