DOUBLE SPEND RACES

Cyril Grunspan and Ricardo Pérez-Marco ()
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Cyril Grunspan: Research Center, Pôle Universitaire Léonard de Vinci, Labex Réfi, 92916 Paris La Défense Cedex, France
Ricardo Pérez-Marco: IMJ-PRG, CNRS, Labex Réfi, Université Paris Dıderot, Bâtiment Sophie Germain, 8 place Aurélie Nemours, Boite Courrier 7012, 75205 Paris Cedex 13, France

International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), 2018, vol. 21, issue 08, 1-32

Abstract: We correct the double spend race analysis given in Nakamoto’s foundational Bitcoin article and find the exact closed-form formula for the probability of success of a double spend attack using the regularized incomplete beta function. We give the first proof of its exponential decay on the number of confirmations, often cited in the literature, and find an asymptotic formula. Larger number of confirmations are required compared to those given by Nakamoto. We also compute this probability conditional to the knowledge of the time of the confirmations. This provides a finer risk analysis than the classical one.

Keywords: Bitcoin; blockchain; double spend; mining; proof-of-work; regularized incomplete beta function (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1142/S021902491850053X

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