LONG-RUN EFFECT OF A DISASTER: CASE STUDY ON THE KOBE EARTHQUAKE

Yasuhide Okuyama

The Singapore Economic Review (SER), 2016, vol. 61, issue 01, 1-18

Abstract: In 1995, the Kobe earthquake occurred in the second largest economic region of Japan, and its economic damages were accounted around 10 trillion yen. This paper presents an empirical investigation of long-run economic effects of the event based on a time-series data. The results indicate that the event had created statistically significant deviations from the pre-earthquake growth path of Kobe. In addition, the comparison with the projected pre-event growth path revealed that the long-run effects have resulted in a steady decline of per capita GRP, while the short-run impacts led to some positive impacts from recovery and reconstruction during the first several years.

Keywords: Disasters; long-run effects; time-series analysis; regional economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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DOI: 10.1142/S0217590816400099

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