Multiannual Macroeconomic Programming Techniques for Developing Economies

Paul Beckerman
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Paul Beckerman: Independent Consultant, USA

in World Scientific Books from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: This book describes practical techniques to formulate multiannual macroeconomic projections for developing economies. The approach is broadly similar to that of well-known financial-programming “models”, but some of the material, including solution procedures for the external and fiscal projections and the external-debt projection methodology, is innovative. The basic aim of macroeconomic programming exercises is to determine whether a quantitatively specified macroeconomic and government-expenditure policy program would be “financially feasible” — that is, consistent over time with external and internal financing likely to be available. Exercises of the kind described here formulate national-, external-, fiscal-, and monetary-accounts projections, based on (i) assumed behavioral parameters; (ii) assumed “exogenous” world conditions and internal variables; (iii) programmed macroeconomic objectives such as real growth, inflation, and exchange-rate evolution; (iv) programmed real government expenditure; (v) an external-debt program; and (vi) data for the “base” year preceding the projection period. The projections include estimates of the external and internal financing the public sector and economy as a whole would require, which may be evaluated for feasibility. Among other applications, macroeconomic programming exercises may be used to help gauge the financial feasibility of development and poverty-reduction objectives (like the UN Millennium Development Goals), or to address external-debt “sustainability”.

Keywords: Multiannual Macroeconomic Projections; Developing Economies; Fiscal Projections; External-Debt Projection Methodology; Macroeconomic Programming; Assumed Behavioral Parameters; Assumed “Exogenous” World Conditions; Internal Variables; Programmed Macroeconomic Objectives; Real Growth; Inflation; Programmed Real Government Expenditure; Exchange-Rate Evolution; External-Debt Program (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
ISBN: 9789814289023
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Chapters in this book:

Ch 1 Introduction , pp 1-28

Paul Beckerman

Ch 2 Overview of the projection procedure , pp 29-53

Paul Beckerman

Ch 3 Basic programming variables , pp 54-80

Paul Beckerman

Ch 4 Programming variables: Non-interest government expenditure , pp 81-102

Paul Beckerman

Ch 5 Programming variables: External debt and internal government debt , pp 103-132

Paul Beckerman

Ch 6 National-expenditure accounts projections , pp 133-157

Paul Beckerman

Ch 7 External-accounts projections , pp 158-179

Paul Beckerman

Ch 8 Fiscal-accounts projections , pp 180-208

Paul Beckerman

Ch 9 Monetary-accounts projections , pp 209-239

Paul Beckerman

Ch 10 Practical programming and projection issues , pp 240-278

Paul Beckerman

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