Why Oil Prices Plunged and Settled Negative: A Game-Theoretical Perspective

Chenghu Ma and Xianzhen Wang

Chapter 5 in The CME Vulnerability:The Impact of Negative Oil Futures Trading, 2020, pp 105-130 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: We provide a game-theoretical explanation to the negative prices event of WTI2005 on April 20, 2020, in the context of a battery of economic phenomena. First, in the wake of the petropolitical maneuvering among several of the largest oil producers and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic over the world, the global oversupply has caused tremendous pressure on oil prices. Second, speculative activities and the physical delivery mechanism led to a significant long-short imbalance, especially as the Cushing storage was reaching its capacity. Third, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s (CME) introducing of the negative price scheme stimulated strategic interactions among futures traders. The negative prices were triggered by the existing long buyers, while their counterparties showed little resistance, reflecting the fact that the market was vulnerable and highly susceptible to manipulation, and some active long/short investors may form a coalition to exploit the specific trader(s).

Keywords: CME; Vulnerability; WTI; Oil; Trading; Rule; 420; Negative Trading Price; Best Practice; Valuation; Risk Management; Regulatory; Rule; Accounting; Standard; Fair Value; Trading Behaviour; Covid; Corona (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G1 G10 G17 G32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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