Winning Hockey: Team and Player Impact in the NHL

Leonard C. MacLean and William T. Ziemba

Chapter 8 in Sports Analytics, 2022, pp 95-117 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: Ice hockey is a fast physically demanding game, with the outcome of a contest between teams being determined by a few key events. A spectator can usually detect the key plays which affect game outcome. As well statistics on player activity in each game is recorded in a box score. This paper considers the game box score and the problem of identifying box score statistics for teams and players which materially affect outcome. The box score variables are separated into two levels: team level variables which directly affect outcome; player level variables which impact the important team level variables. The team level analysis uses logistic regression to link outcome to team variables and the player level analysis uses multiple regression to identify player variables which impact team variables. The methods are applied to games in the National Hockey League during the 2021 regular season. The teams in the Canadian Division are featured.

Keywords: Sports Analytics; Statistical Analysis of Sports Decisions; NFL Football; Thoroughbred Racing; Basketball; Baseball; Hockey; Jai Alai; Optimal Betting Strategies; Mean Reversion Risk; Arbitrage; Decision Strategies by Coaches (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 L83 Z2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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