Forecast Performance of the Taiwan Weighted Stock Index: Update and Expansion

Deng-Yuan Ji, Hsiao-Yin Chen and Cheng Few Lee

Chapter 17 in Handbook of Investment Analysis, Portfolio Management, and Financial Derivatives:In 4 Volumes, 2024, pp 593-612 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: This research introduces the following to establish a TAIEX prediction model: intervention analysis integrated into the ARIMA–GARCH model, ECM, intervention analysis integrated into the transfer function model, the simple average combination forecasting model, and the minimum error combination forecasting model. The results show that intervention analysis integrated into the transfer function model yields a more accurate prediction model than ECM and intervention analysis integrated into the ARIMA–GARCH model. The minimum error combination forecasting model can improve prediction accuracy much better than non-combination models and also maintain robustness. Intervention analysis integrated into the transfer function model shows that the TAIEX is affected by external factors, the INDU, the exchange rate, and the consumer price index; therefore, facing the different issues of the TAIEX, the government could pursue some macroeconomic policies to reach the goals of policies.

Keywords: Financial Accounting; Financial Auditing; Mutual Funds; Hedge Funds; Asset Pricing; Options; Portfolio Analysis; Risk Management; Investment Analysis; Momentum Analysis; Behavior Analysis; Futures; Index Futures; CDCs; Financial Econometrics; Statistics; Financial Derivatives; Financial Accounting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G1 G11 G12 G3 M41 M42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdf/10.1142/9789811269943_0017 (application/pdf)
https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/9789811269943_0017 (text/html)
Ebook Access is available upon purchase.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789811269943_0017

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in World Scientific Book Chapters from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Tai Tone Lim ().