STILL SEARCHING FOR POSITIVE RETURNS AT THE TRACK: EMPIRICAL RESULTS FROM 2,000 HONG KONG RACES

Randall G. Chapman
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Randall G. Chapman: Chapman and Associates, Winchester, Massachusetts, USA

Chapter 18 in Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets, 2008, pp 173-181 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: AbstractThe Bolton and Chapman (1986) multinomial logit modeling approach to handicapping horse races is extended to a new setting with much more sophisticated handicapping factors and a larger database. Applying a 20-variable pure fundamental multinomial logit handicapping model to 2,000 Hong Kong races yields clear evidence of positive returns to win betting with a simple single unit bets strategy in holdout sample predictions. By eliminating extreme longshots with estimated win probabilities less than 0.04, expected returns in excess of 20% are observed.

Keywords: Racetrack Efficiency; Racetrack Betting Market; Racetrack Betting; Win Market; Finance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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