Assigning Probabilities to the Outcomes of Multi-Entry Competitions

David A. Harville
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David A. Harville: Aerospace Research Laboratories, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio 45433, USA

Chapter 21 in Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets, 2008, pp 213-217 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: AbstractThe problem discussed is one of assessing the probabilities of the various possible orders of finish of a horse race or, more generally, of assigning probabilities to the various possible outcomes of any multi, entry competition. An assumption is introduced that makes it possible to obtain the probability associated with any complete outcome in terms of only the ‘win’ probabilities. The results were applied to data from 335 thoroughbred horse races. where the win probabilities were taken to be those determined by the public through pari-mutuel betting.

Keywords: Racetrack Efficiency; Racetrack Betting Market; Racetrack Betting; Win Market; Finance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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