Application of Running Time Distribution Models in Japan

Victor S. Y. Lo
Additional contact information
Victor S. Y. Lo: Faculty of Commerce & Business Administration, University of British Columiba, Canada

Chapter 24 in Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets, 2008, pp 237-247 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: AbstractTo predict the the ordering probabilities such as the probability that horse i wins and j finishes second), the Harville (1973) model has been the most popular. The model assumes the running time distribution is independent exponential. However, a recent empirical study shows that the Henery (1981) model has a better fit. In this paper, we consider the Stern (1990) model in addition to the two models above. We fit the Stern model in a Japanese data set and conclude that the Stern model with a particular value of the shape parameter is superior to the others. Under the assumption of the Stern model, we show that the Harville model has a systematic bias in predicting the ordering probabilities.

Keywords: Racetrack Efficiency; Racetrack Betting Market; Racetrack Betting; Win Market; Finance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdf/10.1142/9789812819192_0024 (application/pdf)
https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/9789812819192_0024 (text/html)
Ebook Access is available upon purchase.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789812819192_0024

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in World Scientific Book Chapters from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Tai Tone Lim ().