DATABASE MODELS AND MANAGERIAL INTUITION: 50% MODEL + 50% MANAGER

Robert C. Blattberg and Stephen J. Hoch
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Robert C. Blattberg: University of Chicago, Graduate School of Business, 1101 E. 58th Street, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA
Stephen J. Hoch: University of Chicago, Graduate School of Business, 1101 E. 58th Street, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA

Chapter 14 in Perspectives on Promotion and Database Marketing:The Collected Works of Robert C Blattberg, 2010, pp 215-227 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: AbstractWe focus on ways of combining simple database models with managerial intuition. We present a model and method for isolating managerial intuition. For five different business forecasting situations, our results indicate that a combination of model and manager always outperforms either of these decision inputs in isolation, an average R2 increase of 0.09 (16%) above the best single decision input in cross-validated model analyses. We assess the validity of an equal weighting heuristic, 50% model + 50% manager, and then discuss why our results might differ from previous research on expert judgment.

Keywords: Quantitative Marketing; Tracker Model; Customer Level Data; Marketing-Mix Modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: M31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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