The Impact of Exports on GDP: Evidence from the Middle Eastern and BRICS Countries

Ahmad S. Al Humssi, Larisa N. Sorokina, Vladimir Z. Chaplyuk and Milana M.-S. Abueva

Chapter 16 in The Sustainable Development of the Entrepreneurial Economy in the Fifth Industrial Revolution, 2026, pp 183-194 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: This chapter describes a study of the causal relationship between the volume of exports and the GDP in the Middle Eastern (ME) and BRICS countries in 2000–2022. The research is based on stationarity tests using the ADF test, cointegration using the Johannes methodology, and the homogeneity test according to the ARCH. The results of this research show that in countries such as Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Qatar, Russia, and Yemen, there is a causal relationship between exports and GDP in both the short and long terms. In other words, an increase in export volume leads to a rise in GDP over both timeframes. However, in countries such as Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Bahrain, India, Oman, Brazil, China, Egypt, and Turkey, this relationship is observed only in the short term. Here, an increase in export volume stimulates GDP growth only in the short term. This research also finds no cumulative correlation between exports and GDP in countries such as Syria.

Keywords: Sustainable Development; Entrepreneurship; Innovation; Technology; Information Management; Organizational Behavior; Industrial Organization; Entrepreneurial Economy; Fifth Industrial Revolution; Cause-and-Effect Relationships; Fourth Industrial Revolution; Digital Technology; Industry 5.0; Operations Management; Operations Research; Supply Chain Management; Fintech; Cryptocurrency; Blockchain; Economics and Finance; Corporate Governance; Technological Environment; National Economy; State Management; Corporate Management; Agro-Industrial Complex 5.0; Fuel and Energy Complex 5.0; BRICS; EAEU; Central Asia; Social Responsibility; Digital Competitiveness; Digital Energy; Entrepreneurial Universities 5.0; Machine Learning; Cyber-Social System; Smart Company; Management of AI; Automatization; Decision-Making in Entrepreneurship; Big Data; Blockchain Finance; Robotisation Of Production; Applied Technological Solutions; Smart City; Local Entrepreneurial Economy; Modernisation; Institutes of Globalisation; E-Government; Innovative Economy; Knowledge Society; BRICS+ (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L26 O33 Q01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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