Application of the VARMA Model for Sales Forecast: Case of Urmia Gray Cement Factory

Ramin Bashir Khodaparasti and Samad Moslehi
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Ramin Bashir Khodaparasti: Urmia University, Iran
Samad Moslehi: Payam Noor University, Iran

Timisoara Journal of Economics and Business, 2014, vol. 7, issue 1, 89–101

Abstract: To forecast sales as reliably as possible is one of the most important issues in every business trade. Therefore, in recent years different models have been suggested to deal with this issue. One efficient model is the time series model. This study applies a multivariate time series model to forecast Urmia Gray Cement Factory's sales volume and more importantly, to propose an effective model to be used by other cement factories to predict their sales volume. The two independent variables of costs and revenues and the dependent variable of sales were used in the present study. Results of the study indicated the two independent variables had a positive and direct relationship with sales volume forecast.

Keywords: Forecasting Models; Autoregressive Process. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F17 M11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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