Stimmensplitting und Koalitionswahl

Thomas Gschwend () and Franz Urban Pappi ()
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Franz Urban Pappi: Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Postal: L 13, 15, D-68131 Mannheim

No 03-21, Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications from Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim

Abstract: In this paper we are interested in explaining strategic ticket-splitting in the German mixed-electoral system across time. We propose that mainly two factors determine the level of strategic ticket-splitting across electoral districts and across time. The closer the district race is expected or the clearer the identifiability of viable coalitions are in the public the more strategic ticket splitting is expected. We content analyze political magazines (DER SPIEGEL) in order to get measures about the degree of pre-election identifiability of coalitions and merge it to a data set consisting of district-level election returns (1953-2002). Our results provide evidence for the two factors we proposed. Finally, counterfactual simulations of our results show that small parties benefit from making it clear to the public which coalition they want to form after the election.

Pages: 0 pages
Date: 2003-10-09
Note: Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504, at the University of Mannheim, is gratefully acknowledged.
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Working Paper: Stimmensplitting und Koalitionswahl (2003)
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